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| #549732 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 AM 13.Oct.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012 500 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012 AN ASCAT PASS SEVERAL HOURS AGO SHOWED THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH PATTY WITH MAX WINDS OF 30 KNOTS. SINCE THAT TIME...NIGHT- VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND LOSING ORGANIZATION. THE CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE CENTER. PATTY IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MOST LIKELY...THE CYCLONE WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. PATTY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMANTS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WHICH IS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 25.5N 71.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 25.4N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 14/0600Z 24.0N 74.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
