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| #549832 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:50 PM 13.Oct.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 200 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012 ...RAFAEL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AS IT SLOWLY ORGANIZES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 63.9W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN * ST. MARTIN * GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS RAFAEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...AND A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM ...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42060 IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY... AND REACH CULEBRA AND VIEQUES TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
