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| #549922 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 13.Oct.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012 SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF RAFAEL DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C ARE OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THESE REMAIN RATHER LOOSELY ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB BASED ON DATA FROM ST. MARTIN...WHICH IS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIX. BASED ON THESE DATA AND A 45 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. THE CENTER HAS JUMPED AROUND SOME DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MOTION IS NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. RAFAEL SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER THAT...A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BREAK THE RIDGE AND ALLOW RAFAEL TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES. WHILE ALL THE MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS... ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE FORWARD SPEED AFTER RECURVATURE. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS THE WEAKEST DEPICTION OF THE STORM...REMAINS THE SLOWEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN MODELS...WHICH FORECAST A MUCH STRONGER RAFAEL...REMAIN THE FASTEST AND MOST NORTHERLY. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN COMPROMISING BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IT LIES NEAR...BUT SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN...THE CONSENSUS MODELS. RAFAEL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. AFTER THAT...RAFAEL SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR WHICH SHOULD HALT STRENGTHENING AND START A WEAKENING TREND. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 120 HR...AND THIS COULD HAPPEN EARLIER IF THE FASTER AND MORE NORTHERLY MOTION OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS OCCURS. USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SINCE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS EXTEND WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 18.4N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 19.9N 64.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 21.6N 65.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 23.4N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 25.8N 66.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 33.5N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 44.5N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 50.0N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
