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| #549993 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 14.Oct.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 500 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED... ...SQUALLS WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 63.8W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNW OF ST. MARTIN ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES... BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...SABA... ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTIN...AND ST. MARTIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANGUILLA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM ...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS ANGUILLA THROUGH LATE MORNING. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WARNING AREA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
