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| #550044 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 14.Oct.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012 ...RAFAEL STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 64.1W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH BERMUDA ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY TUESDAY MORNING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
