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| #550046 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 14.Oct.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF RAFAEL IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A BURST OF CONVECTION WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION. A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 997 MB...WHICH IS SEVERAL MILLIBARS LOWER THAN 12 HOURS AGO. THE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY SAMPLING THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STORM. FOR THE FIRST TIME...STRONG WINDS WERE MEASURED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER ON A PASS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KT...AND RAIN CORRECTED SFMR VALUES OF AROUND 45 KT. BASED OF THIS DATA...AND THE ASSUMPTION THAT STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS RAFAEL TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. RAFAEL WILL LIKELY BEGIN ITS TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 72 HOURS AS IT STARTS TO INTERACT A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETE WITHIN 96 HOURS AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/10 KT. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH SLOWER THAN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE AS IT KEEPS RAFAEL WEAKER AND SHALLOWER. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE FASTER GFS/GFDL SOLUTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 20.0N 64.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 21.5N 65.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 23.2N 66.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 25.5N 66.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 29.1N 64.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 38.7N 58.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 48.5N 48.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 19/1200Z 50.5N 40.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
