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| #550103 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 14.Oct.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 500 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012 AFTER IMPROVING DURING THE MORNING...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF RAFAEL HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTLY AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE 1500 UTC ADVISORY...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 64 KT AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA AND 1800 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50 KT. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT TIME... THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL CALLS FROM RAFAEL TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GIVEN THE LACK OF A TIGHT INNER CORE AND THE MARGINAL UPPER-AIR PATTERN...HOWEVER...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE THAT RAFAEL WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND TO THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. RAFAEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 330/9 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING. RAFAEL SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BY TUESDAY...A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAFAEL TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT/TROUGH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST RAFAEL WILL GAIN LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 1200 UTC GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 20.7N 64.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 21.8N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 23.5N 66.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 26.0N 65.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 29.3N 64.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 39.5N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 48.5N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 19/1800Z 49.0N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
