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| #550254 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 15.Oct.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 1100 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012 RAFAEL HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED IN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THERE HAS BEEN NO HINT OF AN EYE IN EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELITE IMAGERY...BUT EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED A RAGGED BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RAFAEL IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE PLANE MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 81 AND 75 KT DURING PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WITH MAXIMUM CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 55-57 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...RAFAEL WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING...BUT RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A POWERFUL CYCLONE AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. RAFAEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. THE STORM SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD VERY SOON AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. AS THIS TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH...RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO TURN EASTWARD IN A FEW DAYS IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FORWARD SPEED AND TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 23.0N 65.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 24.5N 65.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 27.4N 64.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 30.9N 63.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 35.4N 59.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 43.5N 47.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 47.0N 31.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/1200Z 47.0N 20.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
