Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #550321 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 15.Oct.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 500 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012 THE ORGANIZATION OF RAFAEL HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TILT BETWEEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT SFMR SURFACE WIND MEASUREMENTS...RAFAEL REMAINS A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM. NOAA AND U.S. AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE EN ROUTE TO THE STORM AND SHOULD PROVIDE VALUABLE DATA THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE SHEAR...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR RAFAEL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO BE LESSENING AS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND RAFAEL WILL BE MOVING OVER DECREASING SSTS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAFAEL WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL STATUS WITHIN 48 HOURS...AS IT STARTS TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST...THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE WITHIN 72 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. IT APPEARS THAT RAFAEL HAS MADE THE ANTICIPATED NORTHWARD TURN. THE STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS FORECAST TO TURN EASTWARD IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GFS...AND THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE...AND VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 24.1N 65.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 26.1N 65.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 29.4N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 33.7N 61.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 39.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 47.0N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/1800Z 48.0N 27.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/1800Z 48.0N 25.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
