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| #550375 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 15.Oct.2012) TCDAT2 HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 1100 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012 AFTER CHANGING LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...RAFAEL HAS UNDERGONE A SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING EPISODE THIS EVENING. FLIGHT-LEVEL... SFMR...AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 75 KT. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY VIGOROUS CONVECTION AS EVIDENCED BY ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY...AND REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS OF SEVERE TURBULENCE NEAR THE CORE. RAFAEL CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT WELL-DEFINED UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF ITS CIRCULATION...EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL SHEAR. SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT IN 24 HOURS...AND THIS...ALONG WITH COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING TO COMMENCE BY WEDNESDAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AND INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH RAFAEL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD...OR ABOUT 010/10. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS APPROACHING RAFAEL...AND THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC AS IT INTERACTS WITH...AND ABSORBS...ANOTHER LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THAT REGION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE ONE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 25.1N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 27.6N 64.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 31.6N 62.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 36.4N 59.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 41.2N 54.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 48.0N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 20/0000Z 48.5N 26.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/0000Z 49.5N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
