Show Selection: |
#550379 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 15.Oct.2012) TCMAT2 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 0300 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 65.5W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 330SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 65.5W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 65.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.6N 64.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.6N 62.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 36.4N 59.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 41.2N 54.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 250SE 180SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 48.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 180SE 140SW 40NW. 34 KT...240NE 360SE 320SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 48.5N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 49.5N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 65.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH |