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| #550400 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:59 AM 16.Oct.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 200 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012 ...RAFAEL NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA BY LATE AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 65.3W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH A WEAKENING TREND LIKELY TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA. WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
