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| #550473 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 16.Oct.2012) TCDAT2 HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012 DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...RAFAEL REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE PICTURES WITH A SOLID CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SHOW THE PRESSURE FELL TO 970 MB A FEW HOURS AGO...WITH THE MOST RECENT MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 90 KT AND SFMR DATA OF 70-75 KT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 80 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE DATA. WEAKENING SHOULD START FAIRLY SOON WITH STRONG SHEAR APPROACHING THE CYCLONE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE INTENSITY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE NEW NHC FORECAST...BUT IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE RAFAEL WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY WITH PREDICTED SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40 KT. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE INITIAL WINDS. RAFAEL IS MOVING A BIT FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...020/21. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE HURRICANE PASSING TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT...THEN MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THERE ARE SOME MINOR SPEED DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE CYCLONE MOVES...AND THE NHC FORECAST LIES ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE INTERPOLATED PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS LIKELY BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS DUE TO VERY COLD WATER AND INTERACTION WITH A COLD FRONT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 28.6N 64.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 31.7N 62.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 36.5N 59.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 41.5N 53.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 45.5N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/1200Z 50.5N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 20/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/1200Z 44.0N 29.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
