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| #550495 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:50 PM 16.Oct.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 200 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012 ...RAINS FROM RAFAEL HAVE BEGUN IN BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 64.4W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE DATA IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA. WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
