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| #550535 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 16.Oct.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 500 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN BERMUDA THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 63.8W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA. WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
