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| #550643 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 17.Oct.2012) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 500 AM AST WED OCT 17 2012 ...RAFAEL MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.2N 60.7W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND RAFAEL COULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
