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| #550692 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 17.Oct.2012) TCDAT2 HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 1100 AM AST WED OCT 17 2012 RAFAEL REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL CLOSE TO THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE IS UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE TRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW LATER TODAY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE REDUCED TO 65 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD....HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RAFAEL IS RACING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 30 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AND THEN COMPLETE A CYCLONIC LOOP AROUND A DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE NHC TRACK IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WAS HELPFUL FOR BOTH THE TRACK AND WIND RADII FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 37.5N 59.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 41.0N 54.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 18/1200Z 44.8N 45.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/0000Z 48.0N 36.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1200Z 51.0N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1200Z 54.0N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1200Z 47.5N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/1200Z 43.5N 29.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
