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| #550763 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 PM 17.Oct.2012) TCDAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 500 PM AST WED OCT 17 2012 ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF RAFAEL THIS AFTERNOON...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME THAT OF AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. EARLIER ASCAT DATA SHOWED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPINGING ON THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...AND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT IS ANALYZED INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. THEREFORE...RAFAEL HAS BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE ASCAT DATA INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF 50-60 KT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... BUT THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RAFAEL HAS TURNED NORTHEASTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEN COMPLETE A CYCLONIC LOOP AROUND A DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 40.2N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 18/0600Z 42.9N 50.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 18/1800Z 46.0N 41.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/0600Z 49.0N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1800Z 52.0N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1800Z 54.0N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1800Z 47.6N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/1800Z 43.0N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
