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| #551794 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 22.Oct.2012) TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1500 UTC MON OCT 22 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 78.0W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 78.0W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 77.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.7N 78.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.3N 78.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.7N 77.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.4N 77.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.5N 76.0W...INLAND OVER CUBA MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 60SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 24.5N 74.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 27.0N 73.0W...SUBTROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 78.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/AVILA |
