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| #551815 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:41 PM 22.Oct.2012) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 200 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 78.5W ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SHOULD DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH JAMAICA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT IS APPROACHING JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 16 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREA OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AREAS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG/AVILA |
