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| #551862 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 PM 22.Oct.2012) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012 THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A BAND OF SURFACE WINDS NEAR 35 KT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SHEAR...AND THE STORM WILL BE OVER WARM WATERS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE...HOWEVER...AS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL REGION OF THE STORM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY FLAT PRESSURE FIELD...BUT THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. HOWEVER...LITTLE OVERALL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD SOON. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST. THIS IS ONLY A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 12.5N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 13.6N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 14.9N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 16.4N 77.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 18.2N 77.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 22.0N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 26/1800Z 25.0N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 27.5N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
