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| #551914 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 22.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012 1100 PM AST MON OCT 22 2012 THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO BROKEN BANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...T2.0/30 KT FROM SAB...AND 2.3/33 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAIRLY LOW WIND SHEAR AND OVER WARM WATER...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AIDS DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW OVER COOLER WATER IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM OPENING INTO A TROUGH OR BECOMING ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN A RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER THAT TIME...A FASTER EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 23.0N 51.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 24.3N 51.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 26.0N 50.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 27.3N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 28.3N 45.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 31.2N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/0000Z 35.0N 31.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
