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| #552033 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 23.Oct.2012) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND FEATURE EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. USING A BLEND OF SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CYCLONE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...SANDY IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. THE INTERACTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF SANDY WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. AFTERWARDS...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RE-INTENSIFICATION. AROUND DAY 5...THE GFS OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT SANDY WILL BE DERIVING ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC SOURCES...AND THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS POST-TROPICAL BY THAT TIME. FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...OR ABOUT 020/4. AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY GRADUALLY WEAKENS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IN AROUND 2-3 DAYS...THE TRACK COULD BEND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF SANDY. THIS IS SHOWN MOST PROMINENTLY IN THE 0600 UTC GFS RUN...WHICH HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 48 TO 72 HOUR TIME FRAME. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS...AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 13.8N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 14.9N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 16.9N 77.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 18.9N 77.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 21.4N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...ON NORTH COAST OF CUBA 72H 26/1200Z 25.6N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 28.5N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 31.0N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
