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| #552146 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 23.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 23 2012 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOW BETTER DEFINED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 35 KT...MAKING THE CYCLONE TROPICAL STORM TONY. TONY ONLY HAS A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A DRIER AIRMASS AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE TONY TO LEVEL OFF IN INTENSITY. A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED N MI NORTHWEST OF TONY IS ANTICIPATED TO INTERACT OR MERGE WITH THE SYSTEM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS THEREFORE SHOWN AT 48 HOURS...AND DISSIPATION IS NOW PREDICTED TO OCCUR BY DAY 4...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS. THE TROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW BETWEEN AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...CAUSING TONY TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE IN THE MORE ZONAL FLOW. A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST IN A FEW DAYS AS THE FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE 12-FT SEAS DENOTED IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY ARE THE RESULT OF WIND WAVES GENERATED BY TONY INTERACTING WITH SWELL FROM THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 26.7N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 27.7N 47.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 28.8N 44.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 29.9N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 31.1N 38.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/0000Z 35.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
