Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #552269 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 24.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012 1100 AM AST WED OCT 24 2012 SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF TONY HAS INCREASED SOME IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS COMPRISED OF AN ELONGATED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...A WELL-DEFINED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND A DRY SLOT FORMING IN BETWEEN. A 1123 UTC SSMI/S IMAGE SHOWED A PARTIAL MID-LEVEL EYE BUT SUGGESTED THAT THIS FEATURE WAS WAS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A CONSENSUS 3.0 FROM BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES AND UW-CIMSS ADT CI VALUES ARE 2.8. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 45 KT. TONY IS ENCOUNTERING IN EXCESS OF 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GREATLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER WATERS. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A FRONTAL ZONE ENCROACHING ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION OF TONY...SUGGESTING THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS LIKELY ALREADY BEGUN OR WILL BEGIN SOON. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETE IN AS SOON AS 24 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST BELOW THE LGEM AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS... SHOWING TONY AS POST-TROPICAL BY 36 HOURS. TONY HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/17. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A SPLIT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AFTER 36 HOURS...WITH A FEW MODELS SWINGING TONY AROUND A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW FORMING OVER NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...A MAJORITY SHOW POST-TROPICAL TONY BYPASSING THIS FEATURE AND CONTINUING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EAST- CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AFTER 36 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 28.5N 45.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 29.5N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 30.8N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/0000Z 32.1N 35.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 26/1200Z 33.7N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/1200Z 37.0N 29.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN |
