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| #552334 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 24.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012 500 PM AST WED OCT 24 2012 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF TONY HAS DETERIORATED RAPIDLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS TAKEN ON A COMMA-LIKE SHAPE MORE BEFITTING OF AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY. SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.5 AND 3.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CI VALUES. THE COLD FRONT SEEN APPROACHING TONY FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLIER APPEARS TO BE OVERTAKING IT...WITH RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY AND WILL BE COMPLETE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LAST ONE...WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NOW SHOWN WITHIN 12 HOURS...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. TONY HAS ACCELERATED FURTHER...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/22. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED GENERALLY EAST- NORTHEASTWARD IN A DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROTATES CYCLONICALLY AROUND A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS JUST AHEAD OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 29.6N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 30.7N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 25/1800Z 31.9N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/0600Z 33.4N 31.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 26/1800Z 35.0N 28.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/1800Z 38.0N 24.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN |
