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| #552337 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 24.Oct.2012) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 ...SANDY EMERGING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 76.6W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO FLAGLER BEACH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS * THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI * FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH * FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY * FLORIDA BAY A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA OVERNIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS SANDY MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA...WITH SOME RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED AFTER SANDY MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. KINGSTON JAMAICA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM JAMAICA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN CUBA THIS EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... JAMAICA...1 TO 3 FT SOUTHEASTERN CUBA 3 TO 5 FT CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
