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| #552342 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 24.Oct.2012) TCDAT3 HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF SANDY MADE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA AROUND 1900 UTC. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE DEGRADATION TO THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE LANDFALL...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 970 MB IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT OBSERVATION OF 972 MB AT KINGSTON WITH 38 KT OF WIND. ASIDE FROM LAND INTERACTION...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SANDY TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...WHERE SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE HURRICANE AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE INTENSIFYING OVER THE BAHAMAS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SANDY REGAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...ONLY A LITTLE WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS SANDY IS MAINTAINED AS A STRONG CYCLONE WITH AT LEAST SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM BAROCLINIC PROCESSES THROUGH DAY 5...WHEN POST-TROPICAL STATUS IS INDICATED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/12...AS SANDY IS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER IN THE SHORT TERM AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ON DAY 2...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE SHOWN AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AFTER THAT TIME...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A LARGER UPPER-TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF EAST/WEST SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN BY THE ECMWF OF MORE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH. WHILE THE GFS TRACK HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF HAS ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS CYCLE. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AS WELL...AND LIES ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY HIGH...AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE SPECIFIC IMPACTS FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF FLORIDA. GIVEN THE NEW NHC FORECAST...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 18.3N 76.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 20.3N 76.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/1800Z 23.5N 76.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 26/0600Z 25.8N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 27.3N 77.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 30.0N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 33.5N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 37.0N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
