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| #552436 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:59 AM 25.Oct.2012) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 200 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012 ...CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE SANDY LOCATED JUST INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA... ...WIND GUST TO 114 MPH REPORTED IN SANTIAGO DE CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 75.9W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NNW OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM WNW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO * THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS * THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI * FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH * FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY * FLORIDA BAY INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED BY NOAA SATELLITES AND CUBAN RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA THIS MORNING...EMERGE FROM THE NORTHEAST COAST OF CUBA THIS AFTERNOON... MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER CROSSES CUBA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. REPORTS FROM SANTIAGO DE CUBA INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 78 MPH...126 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 114 MPH...183 KM/H... HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE PAST HOUR. ALSO...GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH...87 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/H. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY SUBSIDING OVER JAMAICA. HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATE TODAY AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... JAMAICA...1 TO 3 FT SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...4 TO 7 FT CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS |
