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| #552478 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 25.Oct.2012) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012 ...CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE SANDY PREPARING TO MOVE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 75.8W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ABOUT 40 MI...75 KM E OF HOLGUIN CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO * THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS * THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI * FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH * FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY * FLORIDA BAY INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED BY NOAA SATELLITES AND CUBAN RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA THIS MORNING...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS STILL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CUBA THIS MORNING...AND THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATE TODAY AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... JAMAICA...1 TO 3 FT SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...4 TO 7 FT CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
