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| #552617 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 25.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012 500 PM AST THU OCT 25 2012 SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF TONY REMAINS COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO OVER 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS ALSO GRADUALLY BEEN LOSING DEFINITION AS THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD SEPARATES FARTHER FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS. GIVEN THE DECAYING STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...TONY IS BEING DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THIS ADVISORY. POST-TROPICAL TONY SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEADING OF TONY HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/19. TONY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY EAST- NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN A DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND GRADUALLY DECELERATE BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO BUT AGAIN SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 31.2N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 26/0600Z 31.8N 31.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/1800Z 32.5N 28.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/0600Z 33.2N 25.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN |
