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| #552620 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 25.Oct.2012) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012 ...SANDY NEAR CAT ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...WIND FIELD EXPANDING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 75.6W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ELEUTHERA IN THE BAHAMAS ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS * THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH * FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY * FLORIDA BAY INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GROW LARGER IN SIZE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CAT ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 60 MPH...96 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES. CAT ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 969 MB... 28.61 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS EVENING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
