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| #552704 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 PM 25.Oct.2012) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1100 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012 ...CENTER OF SANDY PASSING NEAR ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 76.1W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS * FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH * FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY * FLORIDA BAY INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE DURING THIS TIME. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED 2-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 41 MPH...67 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 48 MPH...78 KM/H. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
