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| #552771 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 26.Oct.2012) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012 ...SANDY PASSING NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND... ...WIND FIELD CONTINUING TO EXPAND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 76.9W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCEPT ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS * FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAVANNAH RIVER TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND * FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH * FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY * FLORIDA BAY INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TONIGHT AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A LITTLE WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. THE WIND FIELD OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN SIZE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH...78 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 66 MPH... 106 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
