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| #552911 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:02 PM 26.Oct.2012) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 200 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012 ...SANDY WEAKENS A LITTLE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 77.1W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO DEERFIELD BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAVANNAH RIVER TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND * FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH * BERMUDA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. A NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH...93 KM/H. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... WARNING AREAS IN THE BAHAMAS...3 TO 5 FT FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
