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| #552956 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 PM 26.Oct.2012) TCDAT3 HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF SANDY REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AS STRONG SHEAR CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM. THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SUGGESTED THAT THE INTENSITY MAY BE DROPPING BELOW HURRICANE STATUS. THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 65 KT PENDING THE NEXT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SCHEDULED FOR A 0000 UTC CENTER FIX. THE SHIPS OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEREFORE THE NHC FORECAST INDICATES WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE PRESUMABLE DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOREACST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT SANDY COULD TRANSITION INTO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE MOTION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER SLOW AND...IN FACT...RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST LITTLE SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER A MORE REPRESENTATIVE ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS NEAR 360/6. AFTER SANDY ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY AROUND 72 HOURS...A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CANADA SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD AND OVER THE U.S. COAST. INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SINCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 27.3N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 28.3N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 29.7N 76.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 31.3N 74.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 33.1N 72.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 37.0N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 39.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/1800Z 41.0N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
