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| #553121 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 27.Oct.2012) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...SANDY WEAKENS BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE STORM WITH WIDESPREAD IMPACTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 76.7W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO SAINT AUGUSTINE * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER * FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SAINT AUGUSTINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH * BERMUDA IN ADDITION...GALE...STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH SOME RESTRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. SANDY IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450 MILES...725 KM FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41010...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220 KM...EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 56 MPH...90 KM/H... AND A WIND GUST OF 69 MPH...111 KM/H. A NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH...74 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 63 MPH...102 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS BY THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... BAHAMAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT REMAINDER OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SE VIRGINIA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI |
