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| #553201 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 AM 27.Oct.2012) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...SANDY SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 76.0W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER * BERMUDA IN ADDITION...GALE...STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SANDY HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST... HOWEVER...A LONGER-TERM MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450 MILES...725 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... FL EAST COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...1 TO 2 FT NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBERMARLE SNDS...3 TO 5 FT SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY...4 TO 8 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION... ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY. FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY SUNDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
