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| #553204 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 AM 27.Oct.2012) TCDAT3 HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN SAMPLING THE CYCLONE THIS MORNING. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FOUND AN AREA OF HURRICANE-FORCE SFMR WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 91 KT. A DROPSONDE RELEASED FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT IN THE SAME AREA ALSO SUPPORTED WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AROUND 956 MB FROM A DROPSONDE AROUND 1200 UTC...BUT THE PRESSURE IS UP A COUPLE OF MILLIBARS ON THE LATEST FIX. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED ON THE 8 AM INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AND SANDY IS ONCE AGAIN A 65-KT HURRICANE. WHILE SANDY COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE NHC FORECAST KEEPS THE CYCLONE AT HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY LATE SUNDAY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREPVIOUS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL. ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX SHOWS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS MADE A JOG TO THE EAST DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE LONGER TERM MOTION YIELDS AN INTIAL MOTION OF 030/8 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW SHARP A WESTWARD TURN THE CYCLONE MAKES BEFORE REACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFS... SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS AND THEN A VERY HARD TURN TO THE WEST...MEANING THAT SANDY WOULD LIKELY COME ASHORE MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST...RATHER THAN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS SUGGESTED BY DRAWING A STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS. HAVING SAID THAT...IT IS STILL TO SOON TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER...BOTH BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND BECAUSE THE IMPACTS ARE GOING TO COVER SUCH A LARGE AREA AWAY FROM THE CENTER. NOTE THAT WIND HAZARDS FOR SANDY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ARE BEING HANDLED BY HIGH WIND...STORM...AND GALE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO FIRST REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 29.0N 76.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 30.4N 75.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 32.2N 73.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 34.2N 72.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 36.4N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 39.8N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/1200Z 40.8N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/1200Z 43.8N 76.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
