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| #553242 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:59 PM 27.Oct.2012) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 200 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...SANDY PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 75.6W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER * BERMUDA IN ADDITION...GALE...STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450 MILES...725 KM. NOAA BUOY 41010...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220 KM...EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 58 MPH...94 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 76 MPH...122 KM/H. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... FL EAST COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...1 TO 2 FT NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBERMARLE SNDS...3 TO 5 FT SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY...4 TO 8 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION... ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY. FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY SUNDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/LANDSEA |
