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| #553292 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 27.Oct.2012) TCDAT3 HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 FIRST A NOTE ON THE NWS WARNING STRATEGY FOR SANDY. IN ORDER TO AVOID THE RISK OF A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH MAY HAVE CAUSED THE RECENT WEAKENING OF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT MADE ITS FINAL PASS THROUGH SANDY AROUND 1800 UTC AND REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AROUND 961 MB. WIND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND A RECENT DROPSONDE FROM THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND SANDY SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING. SANDY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE WILL INTERACT WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 48 HOURS...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND SANDY IS LIKELY TO HAVE COMPLETED ITS TRANSFORMATION TO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT THAT TIME. AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON... WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. SANDY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD...THEN WESTWARD AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH. ONCE AGAIN...DRAWING A STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN THE 48- AND 72-HOUR FORECAST POINTS DOES NOT QUITE DEPICT HOW CLOSE THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO COME TO LONG ISLAND. HAVING SAID THAT...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK...BOTH BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND BECAUSE THE IMPACTS ARE GOING TO COVER SUCH A LARGE AREA AWAY FROM THE CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 30.2N 75.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 31.5N 73.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 33.4N 72.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 35.4N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 37.9N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/1800Z 40.0N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/1800Z 42.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/1800Z 45.5N 74.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
