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| #553293 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 27.Oct.2012) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS ALSO EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 75.2W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND APPROACH THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES...835 KM. NOAA BUOY 41013...LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH... 94 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... FL EAST COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...1 TO 2 FT NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBERMARLE SNDS...3 TO 5 FT SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY...4 TO 8 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION... ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY. FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY SUNDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
