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| #553383 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 27.Oct.2012) TCDAT3 HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY HAS INCREASED DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...DATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION AT 10000-12000 FT IS STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN INNER WIND MAXIMUM NEAR THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THIS HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN ANY INTENSIFICATION...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 65 KT. THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED PRESSURE IS ABOUT 960 MB. SANDY HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 040/12. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO... STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT...A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND INTERACTION WITH THE U. S. TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...NORTHWEST...AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE U. S. TROUGH TO FORM A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE AREA...WITH THE RESULTING SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK...BOTH BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND BECAUSE THE IMPACTS ARE GOING TO COVER SUCH A LARGE AREA AWAY FROM THE CENTER. SANDY REMAINS IN AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE CAUSED BY A TROUGH TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE HURRICANE DESPITE SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR 36 HOURS... THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE DURING THIS TIME...AND IF THAT HAPPENS SANDY COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER 36 HOURS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL FORECAST THAT INTERACTION WITH THE U. S. TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE SOME INTENSIFICATION ALONG WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE COMPLETE BY 48 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS TRANSITION WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE SIZE AND IMPACTS OF THIS LARGE AND VIGOROUS SYSTEM. AFTER LANDFALL...THE FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO STEADILY WEAKEN. AS ALSO NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN ORDER TO AVOID THE RISK OF A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 30.9N 74.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 32.2N 72.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 34.1N 71.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 36.3N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 38.7N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0000Z 40.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/0000Z 43.5N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0000Z 47.5N 75.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
