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| #554068 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 29.Oct.2012) TCDAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 SATELLITE...RADAR...SURFACE...AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT SANDY MADE LANDFALL NEAR ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY AROUND 0000 UTC. THE INTENSITY OF THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 80 KT AT LANDFALL WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 946 MB. AT LANDFALL...THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER WATER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE HAS OCCURRED ALONG A LONG STRETCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND....CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...POSING A VERY SIGNIFICANT INLAND FLOOD RISK. SANDY TOOK A NORTHWARD JOG BEFORE LANDFALL THIS EVENING AND HAS ALSO SLOWED DOWN. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN FURTHER AND TURN NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. NOW THAT SANDY IS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE NEXT PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...HPC...AT 500 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE NHC PUBLIC ADVISORIES...AND WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE VIA THE NHC WEBSITE. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THANKS GO OUT TO THE CREWS OF THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FOR PROVIDING CRITICAL MEASUREMENTS IN AND AROUND SANDY DURING THE LAST SEVEN DAYS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WOULD ALSO LIKE TO THANK THE LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ACROSS THE COUNTRY THAT HAVE CONDUCTED SPECIAL RADIOSONDE RELEASES AS SANDY APPROACHED THE COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 39.8N 75.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 30/1200Z 40.5N 77.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 31/0000Z 41.3N 78.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 31/1200Z 42.6N 77.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/0000Z 44.0N 76.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/0000Z 46.5N 74.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0000Z 48.5N 70.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
