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| #56723 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:55 AM 14.Nov.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005 LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSES SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30 KT...SO THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT IT IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AND IS DISPLACED PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION. SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT LIES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES 25-33 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE ON STRENGTHENING THAN IT WAS EARLIER. BEYOND 2 DAYS...ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEARING WILL LESSEN AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THAT REGION. THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THAT MODEL HAS BEEN KNOWN TO OVER-INTENSIFY SYSTEMS IN SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS...BUT IT NONETHELESS DEMANDS THE FORECASTERS' RESPECT AS VERY CREDIBLE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS MAINLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL OUTPUT AND IS THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE...THE CENTER IS NOT YET WELL-DEFINED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/9. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD WEAKEN THIS RIDGE...AND SLOW THE EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED THE DEPRESSION VERY WELL THUS FAR...SO A SUITE OF DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACKS IS NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. MY OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE GFDL TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 13.8N 63.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 14.4N 64.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 15.1N 66.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 15.9N 67.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 16.0N 69.7W 40 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 16.0N 73.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 16.0N 76.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 16.0N 79.5W 60 KT |
