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| #56813 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:52 PM 14.Nov.2005) TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005 2100Z MON NOV 14 2005 INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 64.5W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 64.5W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 64.1W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.6N 65.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.1N 67.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.4N 69.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.5N 71.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 15.5N 78.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 15.5N 80.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 64.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB |
