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| #56840 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:40 PM 14.Nov.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005 THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED OVER 120 N MI TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH WAS DEPICTED NICELY IN AN SSMIS OVERPASS AT 0043Z. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0...30 KT...AND SHIP V7CY9 REPORTED 29 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 20Z. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE BASIC FORECAST THINKING. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER ABOUT 72 HOURS...HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE BAM MODELS...REFLECTING THE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN...AND THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE DETERMINED IN PART BY HOW MUCH CONVECTION IS MAINTAINED NEAR THE CENTER. AT THE MOMENT...THE CENTER IS A SHALLOW FEATURE MOVING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE. WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS DECREASING...AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE LATEST SHEAR TENDENCY ANALYSIS FROM UW/CIMSS. INDEED...OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THERE HAS BEEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO IT SHOULD THEREFORE HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WOULD PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING IN 2-3 DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AND THE GFS SAYS THE DEPRESSION WILL DISSIPATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL SURVIVE THE PRESENTLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUES TO ANTICIPATE THAT THERE WILL BE A HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 14.5N 65.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.0N 66.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 15.3N 68.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 15.5N 70.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 15.5N 72.7W 45 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 76.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 15.5N 79.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 15.5N 81.5W 65 KT |
