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| #57786 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:49 PM 20.Nov.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005 GAMMA HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION THAT WAS PRESENT THIS MORNING HAS SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BASED ON THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT...BUT COULD BE LESS THAN THAT BY NOW. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE CIRCULATION AND PREVENT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION. GAMMA IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING...OR ALMOST SURELY BY TOMORROW. GAMMA HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE MOTION HAS BEEN 360/2. LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AFTER WHICH A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE GULF AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD TAKE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION GENERALLY EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO THE EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN DEFERENCE TO THE SHALLOW BAM AND GFS MODELS. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL EITHER BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONT OR DISSIPATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 17.0N 85.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 17.4N 85.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 21/1800Z 17.5N 85.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 22/0600Z 17.6N 83.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
