Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #5795 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 20.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004 DANIELLE CONTINUES TO GENERATE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH AND DANIELLE WILL BE TRACKING OVER A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER OCEAN. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW WEAKENING AND DANIELLE WILL LIKELY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR SO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DANIELLE TO RE-INTENSIFY BETWEEN 24-48 HR AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT THIS REMAINS AN ALTERNATIVE FORECAST SCENARIO FOR THIS ADVISORY. DANIELLE REMAINS WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/04. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THEN BEGIN TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT WESTERLY TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY LEFT AND IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 31.2N 38.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 31.5N 38.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 31.9N 39.5W 25 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 32.5N 40.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 23/0000Z 33.7N 41.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 24/0000Z 36.6N 42.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 25/0000Z 41.0N 41.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/0000Z 45.2N 36.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW |
