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| #5806 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:26 AM 21.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 21 2004 THE PAST 24 HOUR MOTION IS 290/03 AND THE PAST 6 HOUR MOTION IS 235/04...DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY. THE GFS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF DANIELLE AND A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST. THEN AFTER 72 HOURS...A MAJOR TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS RESPOND TO THIS SCENARIO WITH A GRADUALLY ACCELERATING NORTHWEST TO NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT A LITTLE FASTER...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCASIONALLY FIRE UP TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL AGAIN SHOWS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION BEFORE DANIELLE REACHES COLD WATER. IN CONTRAST...THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS DISSIPATION AFTER 36 HOURS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL DANIELLE DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 120 HOURS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 30.6N 38.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 30.9N 39.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 31.5N 40.1W 25 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 32.3N 40.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 23/0600Z 33.9N 42.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 24/0600Z 38.0N 43.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 25/0600Z 43.0N 40.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/0600Z 47.0N 32.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW |
